Market awareness, as of 30 September 2026

Rates turned back up in 2026^1-3

At the ECB and the Fed, 2026 is the year the direction changed from cutting to raising; the Bank of England has held. For each, learn three things: the level, the direction of the last move and the date it happened.

The ECB has raised twice this year¹

The deposit facility rate went from 2.00% (set in June 2025) to 2.25% on 17 June 2026 and 2.50% on 16 September 2026. It is the rate the ECB steers policy with; the main refinancing rate sits 15 basis points above it.

The Fed cut into late 2025, then raised²

The federal funds target range was cut to 3.50-3.75% on 11 December 2025 and raised 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% on 17 September 2026. Know which meeting did what: the reversal is the story.

The Bank of England is holding³

Bank Rate was held at 3.75% at the 17 September 2026 decision, after holds in June and July. The next announcement is due on 5 November 2026, so this entry may already be out of date when you read it.

Euro area inflation: 3.2% in August 2026⁴

Annual inflation was 3.2% in August 2026, up from 2.9% in July and 2.0% a year earlier; the flash estimate had said 3.3%. Energy did most of the lifting, up 14.3% on the year, while inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was 2.4%. The September flash is due on 2 October 2026, so check it before quoting this.

The big four euro economies are not in step⁴

In the same August 2026 release, Spain was at 4.6%, Italy 3.2%, Germany 2.9% and France 2.6%, all on the harmonised measure. One policy rate covers all four, which is why a question about the ECB is also a question about which of them it is really setting policy for.

UK inflation: 3.1% in August 2026⁵

The Consumer Prices Index rose 3.1% in the twelve months to August 2026, up from 2.9% in July, with motor fuels the largest upward contribution. Core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was unchanged at 2.6%, and services inflation unchanged at 3.4%.

2025 was one of the biggest deal years on record⁶

Global M&A reached USD 5.1tn in 2025, up 42% on 2024, driven by megadeals. Investment banking revenues passed USD 100bn, second only to 2021, and ECM volumes and revenues were the highest since 2021. That is the backdrop any “how is the market” question starts from.

Know who is winning, not only how much⁷

Goldman Sachs led 2025 global M&A by value at USD 1.66tn, ahead of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, with Centerview fourth. The Banks area has the full picture, including why the same year looks different by count.

Europe's own adviser table, from a second data provider⁸

GlobalData's 2025 figures for Europe put Morgan Stanley first by value, advising on USD 109.5bn of deals, and Rothschild & Co first by number, with 119. League tables differ by provider, by what counts as a European deal and by how deals are credited, so quote the table with its source.

Equity capital markets had their best year since 2021⁶

ECM volumes rose 21% and ECM revenues 18% in 2025, both the highest since 2021. For a candidate that matters twice: IPO and follow-on questions stop being hypothetical, and an ECM team that is busy is a team that is hiring.

Who led the debt tables in 2025⁶

JPMorgan led global and Americas bond underwriting by volume and leveraged-finance revenue in both the US and Europe; in EMEA bond underwriting BNP Paribas was first, and BofA Securities led global syndicated loans, whose volume rose 9%. The product tables do not look like the M&A table.

European private equity had its second-best year⁹

European private equity raised EUR 147bn in 2025, up 16%, and invested EUR 135bn, up 3% - both the second-best year after 2021 - while exits held at EUR 45bn. That is the money behind the buyout questions, and behind the exits page.

Have one deal, not a headline tour¹⁰

The market question usually becomes a deal question: one transaction you can discuss with its background, rationale, key figures and your own view. The fit page covers how to prepare it.